Modi as BJP's PM Candidate
Advani ji can be right; Cong can be right; and BJP can also be right. Only time can tell who would be right. So we should not think on the lines media wants us to (i.e. if decision was right or wrong), but we should think if Modi is right or wrong (if we have not thought already). Most of my friends like him because he stands for progress, something which unites all of us... So if he comes to power, India has better hope.
It is always good to play by your strengths and we know Modi is more powerful today than Advani ji. BJP workers on the ground want Modi to be PM candidate. And people connect with Modi (that he stands for progress) but we don't know what Advani ji stands for today (may be he stands for glorious history of our nation but it is not enough). Modi is proven success story (in Gujarat) but Advani ji is proven a failure (2009 elections). So it was never difficult for BJP to choose between the two. Now the golden Qn as you also said is if this will benefit Cong. Even if BJP delayed this decision to post-election scenario, we know that most Mslms would even then not vote for BJP. Nitish already gone, there was no alliance to lose also. And Cong's track record in countering Modi is so poor (tried all muscle but never could dent him in Gujarat for last 2 elections) that if Mslms get scared of Modi (as media wish to project) and decide to vote against him, they would rather go to regional parties than Cong, which will help BJP. I think no new Mslm voters will go to Cong, just so that Modi can't become PM. But many people who don't vote, or vote for regional parties will vote for BJP this time because of Modi; so BJP would gain and Cong wont gain due to Modi...
BJP is targeting 270+ seats on its own. The party can't do it by playing according to Cong's rule. I think what BJP is trying to do is to change the rules of the game by bringing in Modi. Reading your analysis, I think it is good and an intelligent person can make it based on the rules our democracy has been playing with so far. But Modi is a different class; he does not fit into molds. I am hopeful. Modi/BJP have enough time before elections come next year. It is possible to convince voters in his favor and may be we shall see a surprising results. Let us see... According to your analysis or many others, India is destined to live with coalition and communal politics. BJP is trying to break it apart and change the game. I like that...
It is always good to play by your strengths and we know Modi is more powerful today than Advani ji. BJP workers on the ground want Modi to be PM candidate. And people connect with Modi (that he stands for progress) but we don't know what Advani ji stands for today (may be he stands for glorious history of our nation but it is not enough). Modi is proven success story (in Gujarat) but Advani ji is proven a failure (2009 elections). So it was never difficult for BJP to choose between the two. Now the golden Qn as you also said is if this will benefit Cong. Even if BJP delayed this decision to post-election scenario, we know that most Mslms would even then not vote for BJP. Nitish already gone, there was no alliance to lose also. And Cong's track record in countering Modi is so poor (tried all muscle but never could dent him in Gujarat for last 2 elections) that if Mslms get scared of Modi (as media wish to project) and decide to vote against him, they would rather go to regional parties than Cong, which will help BJP. I think no new Mslm voters will go to Cong, just so that Modi can't become PM. But many people who don't vote, or vote for regional parties will vote for BJP this time because of Modi; so BJP would gain and Cong wont gain due to Modi...
BJP is targeting 270+ seats on its own. The party can't do it by playing according to Cong's rule. I think what BJP is trying to do is to change the rules of the game by bringing in Modi. Reading your analysis, I think it is good and an intelligent person can make it based on the rules our democracy has been playing with so far. But Modi is a different class; he does not fit into molds. I am hopeful. Modi/BJP have enough time before elections come next year. It is possible to convince voters in his favor and may be we shall see a surprising results. Let us see... According to your analysis or many others, India is destined to live with coalition and communal politics. BJP is trying to break it apart and change the game. I like that...
Cong shaped rules of Indian politics... Vajpayee ji was playing according to the same rules made by Cong (his secular image, his displeasure with Modi after riots, his flirtations with Pakistan all pointed to the same rules), and no party can beat Cong playing rules made by Cong itself. So now BJP is trying to break this secularist class of rules and trying to change the rules of the game (by bringing strong/progress-oriented leader like Modi - just what India wants). Let us see if it succeeds.
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